After Months of Record Prices: Will Olive Oil Soon Become More Affordable?

In recent months, olive oil has come close to becoming a luxury item. The main reason behind the continued price surge was poor harvests in key producing countries like Spain – caused by extreme drought and heat.

The result: prices more than doubled.

When Weather Dictates the Price

The reasons behind the price spike are many – global crises such as the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and inflation have certainly played a role. But one factor stands out: the climate. Prolonged droughts led to massive crop failures – especially in Spain, by far the world’s largest exporter of olive oil.
In the 2022/23 harvest year, only about 660,000 tons of olive oil were produced – less than half the usual amount. The result: empty warehouses, low reserves, and rapidly rising prices. And even the quality of the oil suffered under these climatic conditions. Consumers often ended up paying more for lower quality.

Hope from Andalusia

There’s renewed optimism in Andalusia, the heart of Spain’s olive oil production. Although a prolonged drought hit the olive groves hard in the summer of 2024, November rains helped the fruit recover. The result: larger, plumper olives, a higher oil yield, and better quality. Experts are expecting a significantly better harvest than the previous year – and this is already reflected in retail.
Much of the current stock now comes from this improved season. For example, the price of Rewe’s “ja!” brand olive oil has dropped by about 37%. Other retailers like Lidl and Edeka are also offering olive oil at noticeably lower prices.

Why Patience Is Still Needed

Even though the outlook is brighter and price reductions are already noticeable in some places, an immediate drop is not guaranteed. Many producers are still struggling with the financial impact of past poor harvests, and stock levels remain low. A truly sustainable price decrease is not expected before the end of the year – assuming the current harvest delivers as hoped.

Climate as a Deciding Factor

These developments show: even everyday goods like olive oil are far from guaranteed.

In a globalized world where everything seems constantly available, events like these remind us just how dependent our food production still is on nature, climate, and the environment.